UK Fuel Price Forecast 2026 — What to Expect for the Rest of the Year

What is likely to happen to UK petrol and diesel prices through the rest of 2026? Here are the key factors that will drive prices up or down, and what the current data suggests.

Where Prices Stand Now

As of early 2026, the average UK petrol price sits around 128 to 132 pence per litre, with diesel at 133 to 137 pence per litre. These levels are below the peaks of mid-2022 (when petrol briefly exceeded 190p/litre) but above the pre-pandemic norms of 2019 when petrol averaged around 125p.

The key question for drivers is whether prices will rise, fall, or remain broadly stable through the rest of the year.

Factors That Could Push Prices Up

• Oil supply constraints — OPEC+ production decisions remain the single biggest variable. If the group maintains or deepens output cuts, global crude prices could rise, feeding through to pump prices within 2 to 4 weeks.
• Geopolitical risk — ongoing instability in key oil-producing regions creates supply uncertainty. Any disruption to Middle Eastern or Russian exports could trigger a price spike.
• Sterling weakness — oil is traded in US dollars. If the pound weakens against the dollar, UK importers pay more for the same barrel of crude, and that cost gets passed to consumers.
• Fuel duty changes — the 5p per litre temporary cut introduced in March 2022 has been extended repeatedly. If a future Budget reverses or reduces this cut, the pump price would rise by up to 6p per litre (5p duty plus the VAT on top).
• Summer demand — fuel demand typically peaks in July and August as families travel for holidays. This seasonal increase can push prices up by 2 to 5 pence per litre.

Factors That Could Push Prices Down

• Global economic slowdown — weaker economic growth reduces oil demand. If major economies (particularly China) slow down, crude prices could fall, pulling pump prices with them.
• Increased US production — US shale output continues to set records. Greater global supply puts downward pressure on crude prices.
• EV adoption — as more UK drivers switch to electric, domestic fuel demand is gradually declining. This structural trend puts long-term downward pressure on demand, though the effect is slow.
• Refining capacity — new refinery capacity coming online globally can reduce the spread between crude oil and refined fuel prices, benefiting consumers.

What the Data Suggests

Based on current futures curves and analyst consensus, the base case for UK fuel prices through mid to late 2026 is broadly stable, with petrol likely to remain in the 126 to 138 pence range and diesel in the 130 to 142 pence range. Seasonal demand patterns suggest a modest rise through summer followed by a dip in autumn.

The biggest risk to the upside is a geopolitical event that disrupts oil supply. The biggest risk to the downside is a global economic contraction that reduces demand.

What You Can Do

You cannot control global oil markets, but you can control where you fill up. The difference between the cheapest and most expensive forecourt in any area is typically 10 to 15 pence per litre — a bigger swing than most price forecasts predict for the entire year.

Use our price comparison tool to find the cheapest fuel near you. For tips on reducing your fuel bill regardless of pump prices, read our guide to saving money on fuel and learn about the best time to buy petrol.

To understand the tax component of what you pay, see our breakdown of UK fuel duty and VAT.